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If Purdy had carried the 49ers past the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs with all that stacked against him, what else would remain for him to prove? That Purdy tossed three interceptions in a dreary 28-18 defeat might not change how the 49ers feel about their QB.
But the moment does provide an opening to consider the 49ers’ future as they move closer to the day when the 2024 season ends and Purdy becomes eligible for a massive contract extension.
“It could get tricky for them,” an exec from another team said.
The Pick Six column leads with the 49ers’ future in light of their 3-4 start to the season and important decisions that await. The full menu:
• Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ future
• A new Deshaun Watson conversation
• NFC North fallout: Lions, Vikings, Pack
• Jerry Jones is no Al Davis (that’s a good thing)
• Saints’ cap problems aren’t cap problems
• Two-minute drill: Tomlin’s QB decision
1. The 49ers are 3-4 and suffering from injuries that could threaten their championship window. What happens when they pay Purdy?
Purdy and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes combined for zero touchdown passes and five interceptions Sunday. It was possibly a one-off game for both teams, unless the 49ers have reached a breaking point with injuries, which is possible.
Before Sunday, this 49ers season was largely a testament to Purdy’s ability to produce in an offense lacking McCaffrey, who remains sidelined indefinitely. Purdy was scrambling more and completing longer passes into tighter windows, which some saw as evidence that he’s more than just another system quarterback in a Kyle Shanahan offense.
Yes, Purdy struggled against the Chiefs’ man coverage schemes without McCaffrey, Aiyuk and Samuel there to help him (Aiyuk dropped a long pass at one point). But he has shown an ability to produce without all of his weaponry available.
Purdy is one of 45 quarterbacks to make at least 10 starts since 2022. He ranks first among them in passer rating (107.9), yards per pass attempt (9.2) and EPA per pass play (.214).
Who would trade a young quarterback as productive as that? The answer, so far, has been nobody. The exec was merely suggesting that Purdy, while good, does not belong in Tier 1 or the top of Tier 2, and that other teams in similar situations might have been better off, in retrospect, swinging trades than paying top dollar for their quarterbacks.
The Los Angeles Rams with Jared Goff, the Miami Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa, the Dallas Cowboys with Dak Prescott and the Minnesota Vikings entering their final season with Kirk Cousins were among the examples he cited.
“It’s about being a guy being a dude, and Purdy is not in that ‘dude’ category,” the exec said.
The more likely scenario: Purdy and the 49ers reaching an agreement on an extension before the 2025 season.
“When you have a head coach that has the vision, you know what it is going to look like in the future,” another exec said. “Having the quarterback signed adds to the predictability. You are able to navigate. A lot of other things fall into place, and you can continue to build it as the cap increases.”
Best team fits: Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays
Salary comps: Ohtani (10 years, $700M); Mike Trout (12 years, $426M); Mookie Betts (12 years, $365M); Judge (9 years, $360M)
Contract prediction: 15 years, $622 million
Best team fits: Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles
Salary comps: Stephen Strasburg (7 years, $245M); Jacob deGrom (5 years, $185M); Aaron Nola(7 years, $172M)
Contract prediction: 7 years, $247 million
Best team fits: Mets, Mariners, Yankees, Nationals
Salary comps: Matt Olson (8 years, $168M); Nolan Arenado (8 years, $260M); Kris Bryant (7 years, $182M)
Contract prediction: 7 years, $204 million
Best team fits: Yankees, Orioles, Mets, Braves, Giants
Salary comps: Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M); Carlos Rodón (6 years, $162M); Patrick Corbin (6 years, $140M); Tyler Glasnow (5 years, $136.5M); José Berríos (7 years, $131M); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $105 million
Best team fits: Dodgers, Brewers, Braves
Salary comps: Dansby Swanson (7 years, $177M); Javier Báez (6 years, $140M); Trevor Story (6 years, $140M)
Contract prediction: 6 years, $150 million
Best team fits: Cubs, Mariners, Giants, Blue Jays, Angels, Astros, Pirates, Phillies, Nationals
Salary comps: Brandon Nimmo (8 years, $162M); George Springer (5 years, $150M); Paul Goldschmidt (5 years, $130M); Nick Castellanos (5 years, $100M); Kyle Schwarber (4 years, $79M)
Contract prediction: 4 years, $112 million
Best team fits: Padres, Brewers, Dodgers, Pirates
Salary comps: J.P. Crawford (5 years, $51M); Jeff McNeil (4 years, $50M); Nico Hoerner (3 years, $35M); Orlando Arcia (3 years, $7.3M)
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