“All of that was so inspiring to me because, honestly, if I was in his position, I can’t say that I would’ve woke up looking for my shoulder pads,” Williams said.
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Sherman said the 49ers would have roughly $30 million in salary-cap space next season and that re-signing Williams and extending linebacker Fred Warner’s contract would gobble up that cushion. Sherman said it would take a “miracle” for him to return.
“There are 40 free agents (and) they’ll probably have $30 million or less in cap (space),” Sherman said. “And they’ve got to bring back Trent, who costs over $20 million. And they have to pay Fred, who costs $18 million-plus a year. So anybody who knows the situation understands that.”
Sherman appeared to base his estimate on a 2021 salary cap that’s $185 million, which is similar to what Lynch has said the 49ers are expecting. His $30 million projection, however, doesn’t appear to take into consideration the $11 million or so in cap savings the 49ers would get if they parted ways with two of their most expensive players, defensive end Dee Ford and center Weston Richburg.
Teams also can structure new deals to count little against the 2021 salary cap and more on ensuing years’ caps when league revenue is expected to normalize and the caps to increase again.
Finally — and perhaps most important — it’s important to remember that Sherman serves as his own agent. And in terms of setting expectations for a future deal, it sounded as if “Richard Sherman the agent” was on the podium on Thursday.
Richard Sherman understands the numbers. He’s one of the few NFL players, like Deandre Hopkins, who negotiates his own contracts, and tends to do so successfully. The 32-year-old corner said last week that his time with San Francisco, though fruitful and enjoyable, is almost certainly nearing its end.
He reaffirmed that on Thursday, matter-of-factly pointing out that, especially with a salary cap that’s likely to drop, and the 49ers with more than 40 pending free agents, there’s no room for him.
“If there’s some miracle that happens then, sure, there’s an opening,” Sherman said. “But there’s 40 free agents and they’ll probably have $30 million or less in cap space. They got to bring back Trent who costs over $20 million, they have to pay Fred who costs, $18 million plus a year. So I mean, anybody who knows the situation understands that.”
That’s a rare thing, for a player to assess the cap which such incisiveness. But it’s Richard Sherman, a guy who’s long been known for winning with his mind first, and his body second.
The numbers that Sherman put up? They’re accurate.
Bobby Wagner is currently the top-paid inside linebacker in the NFL, making $18 million per year, but he’s also 30 years old. Fred Warner can be argued as the best linebacker in football, and he turned 24 last month.
We broke down the money that’s coming Trent Williams’ way here, but put simply, there were three massive left tackle extensions handed out recently, all near or above the $20 million per year threshold. That’s roughly what Williams is in for, with the only thing that could go against him being his age (he turns 33 this offseason).
Williams confirmed on Thursday that, as part of a contract restructure at the start of the season—in which the 49ers effectively gave him a cash advance, guaranteeing him money early—the team gave up the option of franchise-tagging him in the offseason. It was a good-faith move, but one which ridded the 49ers of the only tangible leverage they have over him.
The salary cap can land anywhere from $175 million to more than the current $198.2 million figure, but it is almost certain to drop, and Pro Football Talk recently reported the number will likely be around $195 million.
If that number is indeed accurate, the 49ers would have roughly $40 million in cap space. As we also explored here, there are a few easy ways to clear more:
Cuts:
- Jimmy Garoppolo: Saves $24.1 million
- Dee Ford: Saves $6.43 million
- Weston Richburg: Saves $4.89 million
- Robbie Gould: Saves $3.75 million
- Mark Nzeocha: Saves $1.6 million
Assuming that $195 million cap, with these five cuts, San Francisco could create as much as $80-plus million in cap space. One complicating factor is that Dee Ford has a reported partial injury guarantee for 2021, so if he can’t get healthy, it may cost too much to cut him.
Warner’s deal likely won’t immediately go to $18 million next season, but even if it did, and if the 49ers gave Williams $20 million per year, that would leave more than $42 million in cap space.
That all, of course, depends on the quarterback position. If Garoppolo gets cut, there’s either going to be a more expensive quarterback traded for, or a combination of a fairly cheap veteran and rookie at the position.
It’s the only path which could leave the door open for Sherman’s return, and it looks unlikely, because it’s not just Williams and Warner.
The following players are among the team’s free agents:
Jaquiski Tartt, K’Waun Williams, Kyle Juszczyk, Solomon Thomas, Kendrick Bourne, Ben Garland, Kerry Hyder, Ronald Blair, Ezekiel Ansah, Jordan Reed, Jason Verrett, Ahkello Witherspoon, Jamar Taylor, C.J. Beathard, Jordan Willis, Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon.
The following players are among the restricted free agents:
Nick Mullens, Ross Dwelley, Jeff Wilson Jr., Daniel Brunskill, Emmanuel Moseley, D.J. Jones, Marcell Harris
Even if San Francisco clears cap space, which is just about a certainty, Sherman seems to know he’s not returning. The corner position will look different, and likely younger next year.
"I'm telling you, Matthew Stafford is a tremendous football player," Young said on the Tolbert, Krueger & Brooks show. "Matthew Stafford, with some help, is one of the greats of this generation. He really is. He's done miracles, in my mind. Miracles. And that's the thing. If you can say, 'Who's the most valuable player? The guy who's dragging around the most, and getting the most out of it.' I might say, 'Matthew Stafford.'
CARR:
John Lynch and Shanahan have proven to be very aggressive with personnel moves in the past, so I could see them making a big move for the right player. Sam Darnold or Carson Wentz would thrive under Shanahan, but the one player the offensive guru should have his eye on is Matthew Stafford. There's been talk of Stafford and the Lions parting ways this coming offseason, and I can't think of a better option than to put Stafford on a team that has a legitimate chance to get back to the Super Bowl (if healthy). The product Shanahan and Stafford would put on the field would rival that of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, and it would be glorious.
STAFFORD DETIALS:
-LIONS HAVE 24.8M DEAD CAP HIT
-CAP # 2021 : 34.9M
2022 CAP: 27.9M
-WOULD HAVE TO RESTRUCTURE THOSE NUMBERS
-FACTS:
74-86-1 CAREER
-ONE TIME QB RATING OVER 100
-WILL BE 33 IN FEB
-PRO BOWL ONCE IN 11 SEASONS
-CAREER COMP % OF 62.5
-FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS HAS HIM RATED THE 17TH BEST QB - SO HES A MIDDLE OF THE PACK STARTER....
-WOULD HAVE TO GIVE UP LIKE A CONDTINAL — 2-3 ??
THE OPTION NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT......
Should Luck, now 31, choose to resume his career, Indy would retain his rights for two seasons under the terms of his existing contract. Yet, two starting quarterbacks later, with the Colts (8-4) tied with the Tennessee Titans atop the AFC South and closing in on another postseason appearance, Irsay sounds far more pessimistic about a potential Luck comeback.
"You know, I don't think so -- I really don't," Irsay said Tuesday, in an interview with NFL Media to reflect upon the 40th anniversary of John Lennon's death. "I think that door's closed."
Luck, who has since become a father -- he and his wife, Nicole, have a 1-year-old daughter named Lucy -- still has a house in the area and remains in contact with many of his former teammates and others in the organization. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft has given no indication to those close to him that he plans to resume his career -- at least, no one who has felt compelled to share. On Thursday, star receiver T.Y. Hilton was asked the question on Good Morning Football and answered: "Coming back? I don't know. He's pretty happy in retirement life. He's just enjoying it and enjoying it with his daughter, Lucy.
"I don't think we will (see him). He's just enjoying himself. I'm happy for him."
1F: ROBERT SALEH FOR 2 3’S??? (ID DO THAT, DAN QUINN LED SEATTLE’S SB WINNING DEFENSE)
DAK????
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Marcus P. asks: If Robert Saleh leaves to become a head coach, would the 49ers be awarded two third-round picks as per the recently approved system for hiring minority coaches?
Yes. In an effort to boost the number of minority head coaches and general managers, the NFL passed a resolution last month that rewards teams for developing candidates in that category. The reward: a third-round pick in consecutive years.
If Saleh, whose parents are Lebanese American, gets a head-coaching gig, the 49ers would get third-round picks in the 2021 and 2022 drafts. Those selections would come at the very end of the third round, after the compensatory picks. So we’re probably talking about pick No. 107 or so.
That’s significant in any season but perhaps even more so this April considering the 49ers currently don’t have a third-round pick. They traded it to Washington for tackle Trent Williams.
Should the 49ers lose a minority coach and an executive to head coach and GM roles, they’d be compensated with third-round picks for three consecutive years. Martin Mayhew, one of John Lynch’s top lieutenants, is a GM candidate this year.
1G: GOOD QUESTION FORM BARROWS’ MAILBAG
Ed O. asks: Is it fair to just shrug this season off and say “injuries and COVID”? Should we be concerned about 2021, or is it fair to look at next year thinking 12-4 or better and contender?
I think the 49ers’ prospects will hinge heavily on Bosa and Trent Williams. Will the former come back as good as new? Or will he, like a lot of ACL patients, truly return to form in 2022? For Williams, the question is whether they can re-sign him.
If both are back in robust health, I don’t think 12-4 is far-fetched. That the team is still technically in the playoff hunt reflects well on its tenacity. Add a sprinkling of talent —George Kittle and Bosa back, another edge rusher, etc. — and the 49ers will be good again.
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| Anthony Slater |
| @anthonyVslate |
Stat I'm watching most in preseason (and into the first part of the regular season): Pace. Warriors were 15th in pace last season. Feels like, considering strengths/weakne
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| @ShamsCharania |
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