Wednesday, June 14, 2017

WEDNESDAY JUNE 14 2017



GUESTS:

STEVE KERR 5 PM

-SAYS HE WILL COACH WARRIORS A LONG TIME 


TOPICS:

MAYWEATHER-MCGREGOR MONEY GRAB IS ON 

IOLE


WARRIORS:

-HOW LONG WILL THIS LAST?

-WHO CAN CHALLENGE THEM?

OFF-SEASON: FREE AGENTS - CURRY, DURANT, IGUODALA, LIVINGSTON, WEST , ZA ZA -- WHO DO YOU NEED BACK?

WHO COULD FIT: FREE AGENTS WHO MIGHT PLAY FOR LESS?

ANDREW BOGUT, BRANDON BASS, JOSE CALDERON, DARREN COLLISON, TAJ GIBSON, PATTY MILLS, NENE, NERLENS NOEL, MO SPEIGHTS,

NELLIE: WHO'S GONNA BEAT 'EM? 


-IS THIS DOMINACE GOOD FOR NBA --I'M WRITING A PIECE FOR KNBR .COM --ON THE CHALLENEGERS AND IT'S HARD TO COME UP WITH ANYTHING

-  1-10 ON CHGALLENEGE SCALE:

CAVS
SPURS
ROCKETS
CELTICS
CLIPPERS
BLAZERS
JAZZ
WIZ

NBA:

WATCHED PART ONE OF LAKERS--CELTICS

-I WAS TOO YOUNG TO RELIZE AT THE TIME BIRD-MAGIC WAS BLACK WHITE
-BIRD DIDN'T WANT TO BE THE GREAT WHITE HOPE
-THEY TALKED ABOUTBIRD NOT WANTING TO BE GUARDED BY WHITE GUYS
-BOSTON ATTENDANCE SUCKED DURING GLORY YEARS, GOT BETTER WHEN COWENS AND HAVLCHECK LED THEM IN THE 70'S
-THIS LEAGUE WAS IN TROUBLE IN LATE 70'S BLACK PAYERS, WHITE AUDIENCE --ARMY BOUGHT MISL INSTEAD OF NBA STERN SAID

*WAS THE GAME BETTER WHEN YOU COULD BE MORE PHYSICAL?



GIANTS: IT'S OVER - WHAT CAN THEY GET

*YANKEES GOT TOP PROSPECTS --
*GIANTS SYSTEM NEEDS RETOCKING
*NL WEST LOOKS TO BE ON THE RISE
*ONLY 3 UNTOUCHABLES TO ME MAD BUM, POSEY, CRAWFORD


NFL:

OTHER:

-DARREN BAKER WAS DRAFTED BY THE NATIONALS

"FRIENDLY" SHARK SWIMS AROUND MCCOVEY COVE

*STONERS: GREAT SHOW MR T


THE WARRIORS DEAL:

CONTRACTS:

Warriors Offseason Decisions
                        Contract Status
Kevin Durant            $27.7M Player option <<
Stephen Curry           Unrestricted 
Andre Iguodala          Unrestricted
Shaun Livingston        Unrestricted
Zaza Pachulia           Unrestricted
Ian Clark               Unrestricted
JaVale McGee            Unrestricted
David West              Unrestricted
Matt Barnes             Unrestricted
James Michael McAdoo    Restricted
>> Durant will likely decline and become free agent

Warriors Under Contract – Next Season
Klay Thompson      $17.8M
Draymond Green     $16.4M
Kevon Looney       $1.5M
Damian Jones       $1.3M
Patrick McCaw      $1.3M
>> Kevin Durant: $27.7M player option
 
Kevin Durant
- Assuming Durant declines his $27.7M player option and becomes a free agent, there is no real incentive for him to sign long term this offseason. Because he changed teams via free agency last offseason, the Warriors only have Durant’s “Non-Bird” rights. That means they can only sign him to the same deal as the rest of the league: 4 years, $152M. During the 2018 offseason (if KD signs a 1-year deal this summer), the Warriors can offer Durant a 4-year deal for a projected $160M, which would be the same years and about $6.5M more than other teams. Durant will have to wait until he’s played 3 seasons with the Warriors for them to have his full Bird Rights, which would allow them to offer a 5-year deal for a projected $217M during the 2019 summer.

Kevin Durant Projected Max Contracts - Re-Signing with Warriors by Offseason Signed
      Years    Dollars     Avg Annual Value
2017    4        $152M          $38.0M   
2018    4        $160M          $40.0M   
2019    5        $217M          $43.4M

- If Durant did decide to go the long-term route this offseason, there would be 3 potential outcomes, all of which would be a maximum of 4 years in length.

Kevin Durant – Projected Max Contract Options
                 Yrs/Dollars    Signing Mechanism
With Warriors      4/$137M       Non-Bird rights
With Warriors      4/$152M       Cap space
All other teams    4/$152M       Cap space

Stephen Curry
- The Warriors can offer Curry the 5-year/$205M super max, while all other teams can only offer 4-years/$130M.
Stephen Curry – Projected Max Contract Options
          With Warriors    All Other Teams
2017-18        $35M              $30M
2018-19        $38M              $32M
2019-20        $41M              $33M
2020-21        $44M              $35M
2021-22        $47M               xxx
               ----              ----
              $205M             $130M
Klay Thompson
- Under contract through 2018-19

Draymond Green
- Under contract through 2019-20

Draft Picks
- Golden State does not own a pick in the 2017 NBA Draft.

What Durant taking less would mean for Golden State's future
League sources say that Kevin Durant would be willing to take less than his max salary in order to keep the Warriors’ core intact. Here are the potential implications of such a decision that KD and the Warriors will have to ponder this summer:

Why it would help
Without needing to use cap space, the Warriors can offer Durant a 120 percent raise on his 2016-17 salary, which would amount to $31.8M, via the “Non-Bird” exception. However, as a 10-year veteran, Durant will be eligible for a 2017-18 max salary of $35.4M based on the projected $101M salary cap for a team using cap room to sign him (including the Warriors).

Kevin Durant Potential 2017-18 Max Salaries by Signing Mechanism
Non-Bird Exception      $31.8M
Cap Room                $35.4M

By re-signing with the “Non-Bird” exception, the Warriors would stay as an “over-the-cap” team. That would allow them to keep cap holds on free agents like Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston and thus be able to go further over the cap to re-sign them to new contracts.

If the Warriors use cap space to give Durant his max, they would need to renounce the cap holds to many of their non-Curry free agents, and thus they would only be able to offer various exceptions like the room mid-level that’s for far less than what Iguodala and Livingston could earn on the open market. Steph’s “super max” extension is not dependent on Durant, nor would Steph taking less make a difference since the Warriors don’t need cap space to give him his “super max” deal.

But there is a cost
If the Warriors re-sign Curry to a super max and Durant to the one-year deal for $31.8M, then Curry, Durant, Thompson and Green by themselves would account for slightly more than the entire $101M salary cap.

Kevon Looney, Damian Jones, Patrick McCaw and the stretched Jason Thompson combined account for about another $5M. With the luxury tax projected to be $121M, paying Iguodala $15M and Livingston $10M (probably very conservative estimates just for the sake of the example), that would already put them $10M over the luxury tax before using any cap exceptions or re-signing key contributors like Zaza Pachulia, JaVale McGee, David West and Ian Clark.

With the Warriors’ “Core Four” likely to make roughly the salary cap next year and probably more in future years with the cap expected to stop growing, maintaining depth (the whole point of having Durant take less) will be very difficult without making prodigious luxury tax payments.

How long can the Warriors stay together?
If Curry and Durant re-sign as expected (Durant likely will be a one-year deal but he seems to expect to stay long term), their next major contract issue will come up in two years when Thompson becomes a free agent and then three years with Draymond Green. Assuming Curry signs a super max contract, the Warriors will have to decide between offering Thompson or Green a super max deal as teams are only allowed to have two such contracts on their books.

If they give Thompson the super max, then in 2019-20 just Curry, Durant and Thompson would be about $5-10M over the cap to say nothing about Green’s $18.5M deal (that would be due for a sizable raise the following year) and the rest of the roster they have to fill out. Cap projections two years out are very subject to change, but the point remains that it would take a sizable luxury tax payout to keep the Warriors’ Core Four together with any kind of a bench this far down the road.

Because of that, the Warriors could eventually have to decide between going all in on this core while Thompson (two years remaining) and Green (three years remaining) are on relatively cheap deals signed before the cap spike or eventually trading one of them for cheaper pieces before their next contracts become unbearable to the team’s cap.

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