Tuesday, June 13, 2017

TUESDAY JUNE 13 2017 - WARRIORS ARE CHAMPS



GUESTS:

TOPICS:

WARRIORS:

THE GAME:

5 LESSONS 

-WENT SMALL - WENT ON BIG RUN
-1-3 PICK AND ROLL WITH DURANT ANC CURRY

-IGGY'S DUNK

-KERR'S BEST MOVE

STORIES:

DYNASTY? 

-NELLIE: PUT UP WITH ANUBODY

SPEARS ON DURANT

-HOW IT WAS BUILT --MOST IMPORTANT MOVE?

LEGACY:

-LEGACY OF THESE WARRIORS: MOST WINS IN A 3 YEAR PERIOD - 2/3 TITLES - IF THEY WERE 3-3 DEBATE WOULD STOP ---
-BEST PLAYOFF RECORD OF ALL TIME
-HAD OFFENSE AND DEFENSE
-AS KERR SAID PLAYERS GET BETTER, NOT WORSE IN EVOLUTION

-PERONSALLY LEGACIES OF CURRY, DURANT, LEBRON (3-5 IN FINALS)

-KERR'S FUTURE - SAYS HE'LL COACH --WARRIORS MIGHT WANT TO KEEP MIKE BROWN AROUND....AS A 1B -ISH OPTION

-WARRIORS - KEEPING IT TOGETHER --LET'S WAIT ANOTHER DAY ON THAT

-DURANT SHUTTING UP THE DOUBTERS --COMMERCIAL AFTER GAME AND NOW IT'S HARDER TO MOVE AROUND....

-FOR THE FANS: WHO WOULDA THUNK IT?


-STILL STEPH'S TEAM - WAS WATCHING STILL NO FINALS MVP FOR TWO TOME MVP

-LEBRON STILL BEST PLAYER

--KEY MOVES:

*DRAFTING CURRY
*LACOB AND CO TAKE OVER
HIRING BOB MEYERS
HIRING STEVE KERR
DRAFTING OF KLAY, TRADE OF ELLIS FOR BOGUT
DRAFTING OF BARNES, ELZILIE, GREEN
IGGY IN WEIRD JAZZ TRADE
DURANT SIGNS , MAVS TAKE BOGUT AND BARNES AWAY
FIALED MOVES FOR LOVE, HOWARD, DEANDRE JORDAN (OFFER SHEET)

-WARRIORS NO DECISION ON WHITE HOUSE VISIT 


-FUTURE OF THE NBA: THREATS?

*Spurs if they get Paul and kep core together (Parker, Giobili and likely Aldridge or Gasol would have to leave)

*CELTICS - DOES STEVENS GET HAYWARD/ BUTLER OR #1 PICK FULTZ?

*CAVS: GM LEBRON WILL WANT TO ADD TO TEAM

*ROCKETS: CAN SCORE, MOREY WON'T SIT AROUND

*JAZZ: IF THEY KEEP CORE TOGETHER, CAN DEFEND

*CLIPPERS: STAY TOGETHER AND ADD MELO AND MORE....

*WIZ - CAN THEY ADD TO BEAL AND WALL?

*PELICANS - PAUL TO TEAM WITH BIG MEN?


-OLD MAN HATS IN THE LOCER ROOM?

-DON'R EXPECT THEM TO GO 

MORE 

STATS:

Warriors capture 5th NBA title: Greatest team ever?
- The Warriors secured their 5th NBA title in franchise history, tying the Spurs for the 4th-most in NBA history. The only franchises with more than 5 are the Celtics (17), Lakers (16) and Bulls (6).

- The Warriors beat opponents by an average of 13.5 PPG this postseason, the 2nd-best in a single postseason in NBA history, minimum 5 games.

Best PPG Diff in Single Postseason – Min. 5 Games
1971 Bucks      +14.5
2017 Warriors   +13.5
2001 Lakers     +12.8
1991 Bulls      +11.7
1961 Celtics    +11.6

Best Record in Single Postseason
2017 Warriors    16-1
2001 Lakers      15-1
1983 76ers       12-1

- From 2014-15 through 2016-17, the Warriors are 254-54 including the regular season and playoffs (win pct of .825). That is the best record in NBA history for any team over any 3-season span, surpassing the Bulls, who went 248-56 from 1995-96 to 1997-98 (win pct of .816). 


Most Career Playoff PPG – Minimum 10 Games
                              Titles
Michael Jordan    33.4        6
Allen Iverson     29.7        0
Jerry West        29.1        1
Kevin Durant      28.8        1    
LeBron James      28.4        3        

- Durant is the 3rd player since 1969 (first year of the award) to win the Finals MVP in his 1st year with a team. Moses Malone did it with the 76ers in 1983 while Magic Johnson did it in his rookie season with the Lakers in 1980.

Won NBA Finals MVP in 1st Season With Team – NBA History
2017 Kevin Durant       Warriors
1983 Moses Malone       76ers
1980 Magic Johnson      Lakers

Stephen Curry joins elite company
- Stephen Curry is the 9th player with two NBA titles and two MVPs. The other eight are Tim Duncan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, LeBron James, Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, Michael Jordan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

- Curry had one of the best postseasons of his career. He averaged a playoff career high in FG pct and had his 2nd-best 3-pt FG pct and PPG in a postseason of his career.

Stephen Curry – This Postseason
                     Career-Best?
PPG          28.1       No (2nd-best)
FG pct       48.4       Yes
3-pt FG pct  41.9       No (2nd-best)

- Curry joins Karl Malone as the only players with multiple MVP awards, three trips to the Finals and zero Finals MVPs to their names. The big difference, of course, is Curry has two titles while Malone had none.

Stephen Curry's 26.8 PPG are the 5th-mostby a Finals winner who didn't win the Finals MVP.

Most PPG By Finals Winner - Did Not Win Finals MVP in NBA History
1980     Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     33.4
1979     Gus Williams            29.0
1969     John Havlicek           28.3
2016     Kyrie Irving            27.1
2017     Stephen Curry           26.8<<
2002     Kobe Bryant             26.8
>>Higher PPG by decimal points

Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry: Best duo ever?
- Durant and Curry became the 3rd pair of teammates to average 25 PPG in a postseason en route to winning the title. The others are LeBron James and Kyrie Irving last season and Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant twice.

Teammates to Average 25 PPG in Postseason - Won Title in NBA History
                                          Team
2017     Kevin Durant & Stephen Curry     Warriors
2016     LeBron James & Kyrie Irving      Cavaliers
2002     Shaquille O'Neal & Kobe Bryant   Lakers
2001     Shaquille O'Neal & Kobe Bryant   Lakers


NEXT SEASON:

ODDS:

Best Odds to Win 2017-18 NBA Title
Warriors      1-2
Cavaliers     3-1
Spurs        12-1
Celtics      15-1
Clippers     30-1
Rockets      30-1
Wizards      30-1
Bucks        60-1
Raptors      60-1
Thunder      60-1

CONTRACTS:

Warriors Offseason Decisions
                        Contract Status
Kevin Durant            $27.7M Player option <<
Stephen Curry           Unrestricted
Andre Iguodala          Unrestricted
Shaun Livingston        Unrestricted
Zaza Pachulia           Unrestricted
Ian Clark               Unrestricted
JaVale McGee            Unrestricted
David West              Unrestricted
Matt Barnes             Unrestricted
James Michael McAdoo    Restricted
>> Durant will likely decline and become free agent

Warriors Under Contract – Next Season
Klay Thompson      $17.8M
Draymond Green     $16.4M
Kevon Looney       $1.5M
Damian Jones       $1.3M
Patrick McCaw      $1.3M
>> Kevin Durant: $27.7M player option
 
Kevin Durant
- Assuming Durant declines his $27.7M player option and becomes a free agent, there is no real incentive for him to sign long term this offseason. Because he changed teams via free agency last offseason, the Warriors only have Durant’s “Non-Bird” rights. That means they can only sign him to the same deal as the rest of the league: 4 years, $152M. During the 2018 offseason (if KD signs a 1-year deal this summer), the Warriors can offer Durant a 4-year deal for a projected $160M, which would be the same years and about $6.5M more than other teams. Durant will have to wait until he’s played 3 seasons with the Warriors for them to have his full Bird Rights, which would allow them to offer a 5-year deal for a projected $217M during the 2019 summer.

Kevin Durant Projected Max Contracts - Re-Signing with Warriors by Offseason Signed
      Years    Dollars     Avg Annual Value
2017    4        $152M          $38.0M   
2018    4        $160M          $40.0M   
2019    5        $217M          $43.4M

- If Durant did decide to go the long-term route this offseason, there would be 3 potential outcomes, all of which would be a maximum of 4 years in length.

Kevin Durant – Projected Max Contract Options
                 Yrs/Dollars    Signing Mechanism
With Warriors      4/$137M       Non-Bird rights
With Warriors      4/$152M       Cap space
All other teams    4/$152M       Cap space

Stephen Curry
- The Warriors can offer Curry the 5-year/$205M super max, while all other teams can only offer 4-years/$130M.
Stephen Curry – Projected Max Contract Options
          With Warriors    All Other Teams
2017-18        $35M              $30M
2018-19        $38M              $32M
2019-20        $41M              $33M
2020-21        $44M              $35M
2021-22        $47M               xxx
               ----              ----
              $205M             $130M
Klay Thompson
- Under contract through 2018-19

Draymond Green
- Under contract through 2019-20

Draft Picks
- Golden State does not own a pick in the 2017 NBA Draft.

What Durant taking less would mean for Golden State's future
League sources say that Kevin Durant would be willing to take less than his max salary in order to keep the Warriors’ core intact. Here are the potential implications of such a decision that KD and the Warriors will have to ponder this summer:

Why it would help
Without needing to use cap space, the Warriors can offer Durant a 120 percent raise on his 2016-17 salary, which would amount to $31.8M, via the “Non-Bird” exception. However, as a 10-year veteran, Durant will be eligible for a 2017-18 max salary of $35.4M based on the projected $101M salary cap for a team using cap room to sign him (including the Warriors).

Kevin Durant Potential 2017-18 Max Salaries by Signing Mechanism
Non-Bird Exception      $31.8M
Cap Room                $35.4M

By re-signing with the “Non-Bird” exception, the Warriors would stay as an “over-the-cap” team. That would allow them to keep cap holds on free agents like Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston and thus be able to go further over the cap to re-sign them to new contracts.

If the Warriors use cap space to give Durant his max, they would need to renounce the cap holds to many of their non-Curry free agents, and thus they would only be able to offer various exceptions like the room mid-level that’s for far less than what Iguodala and Livingston could earn on the open market. Steph’s “super max” extension is not dependent on Durant, nor would Steph taking less make a difference since the Warriors don’t need cap space to give him his “super max” deal.

But there is a cost
If the Warriors re-sign Curry to a super max and Durant to the one-year deal for $31.8M, then Curry, Durant, Thompson and Green by themselves would account for slightly more than the entire $101M salary cap.

Kevon Looney, Damian Jones, Patrick McCaw and the stretched Jason Thompson combined account for about another $5M. With the luxury tax projected to be $121M, paying Iguodala $15M and Livingston $10M (probably very conservative estimates just for the sake of the example), that would already put them $10M over the luxury tax before using any cap exceptions or re-signing key contributors like Zaza Pachulia, JaVale McGee, David West and Ian Clark.

With the Warriors’ “Core Four” likely to make roughly the salary cap next year and probably more in future years with the cap expected to stop growing, maintaining depth (the whole point of having Durant take less) will be very difficult without making prodigious luxury tax payments.

How long can the Warriors stay together?
If Curry and Durant re-sign as expected (Durant likely will be a one-year deal but he seems to expect to stay long term), their next major contract issue will come up in two years when Thompson becomes a free agent and then three years with Draymond Green. Assuming Curry signs a super max contract, the Warriors will have to decide between offering Thompson or Green a super max deal as teams are only allowed to have two such contracts on their books.

If they give Thompson the super max, then in 2019-20 just Curry, Durant and Thompson would be about $5-10M over the cap to say nothing about Green’s $18.5M deal (that would be due for a sizable raise the following year) and the rest of the roster they have to fill out. Cap projections two years out are very subject to change, but the point remains that it would take a sizable luxury tax payout to keep the Warriors’ Core Four together with any kind of a bench this far down the road.

Because of that, the Warriors could eventually have to decide between going all in on this core while Thompson (two years remaining) and Green (three years remaining) are on relatively cheap deals signed before the cap spike or eventually trading one of them for cheaper pieces before their next contracts become unbearable to the team’s cap.

GIANTS:


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